A Bitcoin whale short-lived USD 100 million at BTC: do the big holders expect a bigger drop?

A Bitcoin whale placed a $100 million short position on November 15 after several indications of on-chain data on a massive whale-induced sale of BTC during the past week.

A Bitcoin whale (BTC) placed a $100 million short position on Bybit, according to the trader named CL. This after several on-chain data points to a massive whale-driven sale during the past week.

Although the Bitcoin momentum remains strong, there are many reasons that make USD 16,000 an attractive area for sellers.

There is significant liquidity at USD 16,000, mainly because it’s a high level of resistance. But the level has seen relatively high buyer demand, as stable currency inflows show. Therefore, the battle between buyers and sellers at USD 16,000 makes it a highly liquid area, which is attractive to sellers.

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Bitcoin order book in futures exchanges. Source: CL, Exocharts
More and more signs that whales are taking profit

A salesman aggressively sold Bitcoin at Bybit on November 15. Order flows show that there were sales orders averaging about $3.5 million consecutively for several hours.

Based on the large-scale abrupt sale order, CL suggested that this could result in two scenarios.

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First, the seller could be overwhelmed and cause a contraction, which could cause the BTC price to increase. Second, it could continue to put selling pressure on BTC. The trader wrote:

„About 2 hours ago, someone aggressive sold almost ~100 million at Bybit, a third of the sales are open, I am personally very curious to see what happens if this seller/shorter is overwhelmed, or if he is let go“.

Meanwhile, other major exchanges have detected large deposits in the last 24 hours. The US-based crypto currency exchange, Gemini, received a deposit of 9,000 BTC, according to CryptoQuant data.
BTC input media at Gemini.

Whales often use exchanges with strict compliance and strong regulatory measures, including platforms such as Coinbase and Gemini.

Considering the large Bitcoin deposit on Gemini, which is worth $143 million, a researcher known as „Blackbeard“ said it’s time to be cautious.
Just weekend volatility?

As CL pointed out, the current market structure of Bitcoin is different from the previous cycle. For example, when BTC was at USD 16,000 in 2017, the market was extremely overheated with extreme volatility. The trader said:

„In 2017, when we went from 10,000, 15,000 to 20,000, we had weekly OKEx futures trades in $1,000 ranges, and now we’re here with only $100 above that on a quarterly basis.

A massive sale of the Bitcoin whales could hinder BTC’s journey to over $16,200

This time, the upturn seems to be more sustainable and gradual. Bitcoin has continued to experience a ladder-like rally over the past six months, allowing it to evolve into a prolonged upward trend.

Instead of a sudden increase followed by another sharp uptrend, BTC has experienced a rise followed by a consolidation, and so on.

As reported by Cointelegraph earlier this month, various data, including Google Trends, show that there is still little interest from retail investors unlike the end of 2017. On the other hand, there is growing evidence that Wall Street is beginning to take notice.

Therefore, there is a strong argument that the current rebound is fundamentally different from 2017 despite the current market sentiment of „extreme greed“. In particular, the available supply has declined due to the recent halving as well as the reserves on the exchanges over the past year.

Bitcoin’s futures funding rates are also neutral at around 0.01%, which means the market isn’t as overheated or overcrowded as it was three years ago. This trend could limit the disadvantage, especially in the medium term.